Goodwin Business Cycle
Current cycle conditions, recession-warning signals, and four-quarter wage and profit forecast paths.
Latest complete quarter 2026Q2
State model
Current economic conditions
Cards and recession warnings describe the selected quarter.
Economic Phase
Expansion
Economic Strength
Above Normal
Direction
Improving
Weakening From Peak
Minimal
Business Investment
Normal
Labor & Wage Pressure
Low
Profit Squeeze
No
Recession warning
State-model signal categories, not recession probabilities.
Next Quarter
Low
Next 6 Months
Low
Next Year
Low
1
238
12
ML forecast system
Forward-looking paths
Separately fitted from the state-model cards above.
Realized next 4Q
Forecast
50% band
80% band
100%
Historical profit
Historical wage
Realized profit
Realized wage
Profit forecast
Wage forecast
50% bands
80% bands
This forecast system is separate from the state model used by the cards. Its baseline combines the geometric trajectory with a Ridge machine-learning correction refitted from realized historical errors. Shading shows 50% and 80% empirical out-of-sample uncertainty; wage forecasts use their own fitted correction and residual distribution.